SSDs will have 128TB capacity and hard drives will have 40TB- Is this true?

Toshiba at the end of last year predicted that Solid state drive capacity will reach 128TB by 2018 and hard drives will struggle to reach just 40TB by 2020. This clear suggests that in next couple of years SSDs will be offered in greater capacities than hard drives.

So, all this boils down to prove one point and that is storage divide is going to grow on a massive note in next 5 years.

Currently, the biggest hard drive in the market today are 10TB. But early this year, Samsung said that it will make a 16TB SSD commercially available by the end of this year and that too within the standard availability of 2.5 inches form factor.

If you look at the form factor of hard disk, anything above 2TB will have a 3.5 inches specification. And this is where the variation of storage media grows, as the size of the storage component increasingly matters when you consider consumers who continue to move away from desktop PCs and over to Ultrabooks, tablets, and smart phones. The same is true in data centers where space is always at a premium.

Nobuo Hayasaka who works as a Chief Engineer at Toshiba Semiconductor and Storage company last year spoke at SEMI members Day Tokyo on this issue. He added that hard drives capacities will reach 20TB by 2020 and may also double up to 40TB within one year while retaining a 3.5 inches form factor. For SSDs, he painted a different picture and said that by next year, Toshiba will be release a 32TB flash drive and by 2017 the capacity will double to 64TB.

Hayasaka added that since flash will be sole future; his company will aim to see 128TB hard drives hit the market by 2018. Beyond 2018 SSD capacity is expected to accelerate, meaning it won’t take a full year to get to 256TB capacity disks and so on. So, Nobuo words give us a conclusion that SSDs would eventually replace hard drives as the storage format of choice in next couple of years.

However, industry veterans such as Mo Tahmasebi, CEO & President of DNF Corporation has different viewpoint. Mr. Tahmasebi feels that it is too early to conclude the future of hard drives when the SSD makers have to still balance themselves in the storage market on Price vs GB ratio. He agreed that in next few years, Solid State Drives will get denser, but doubts their availability when economics is taken into account.

So, what do you say? Do you agree that the availability of SSDs in high capacity will make the future of HDDs bleak?

Please share your views through comments section below.


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